Labor leader Andrew Barr, already the longest-serving political leader in the country, fended off a negative swing and an independent surge to win his third election as chief minister.
While there was still more counting to be done, he told supporters he was confident he could once again form a progressive government with the support of a five-member crossbench.
"We will take the progressive, practical and proven policies we have taken to this election and enact them in government with the support, I hope, of a progressive crossbench that sees value in investing in public housing, public health and public education," he said after triumphing in Saturday's election.
With more than three quarters of votes tallied, ABC election guru Antony Green predicted Labor would cling onto their 10 seats while the Greens would hold three, amounting to the magic number of 13 needed to form government in the 25-member Legislative Assembly.
The Liberals were on track to pick up one seat under leader Elizabeth Lee, matching Labor on 10, but still saw their share of the vote decline by 0.7 per cent.
Calling it a night with some analysis of the implications of the ACT result for each party. — Ben Raue (@benraue) https://t.co/57NXV8G8TwOctober 19, 2024
Ms Lee gave no indication of whether she would step down after conceding defeat.
"A few moments ago I made ... a call I wish I did not have to make," she told the Liberal Party faithful.
"But today the people of the ACT have spoken. They have voted for change, but perhaps not quite enough to get us there.
"I congratulate and acknowledge (Labor and the Greens) because no matter how you cut it up, 27 years whether we like it or not is an incredible feat."
Despite his party suffering a negative 3.3 per cent swing, the result means Labor leader Andrew Barr will extend his record reign as chief minister beyond a decade.
By comparison, the Greens suffered a smaller swing against them of 1.1 per cent but shed half their seats due to the vagaries of the ACT's Hare-Clark system.
Much of the vote share lost by Labor and the Greens was soaked up by independents rather than the opposition.
Murrumbidgee candidate Fiona Carrick and Thomas Emerson in the central Canberra seat of Kurrajong are set to become the first independents elected to the assembly since 1998.
After 12 years in coalition with Labor, the Greens were hurt by their incumbency, with some voters doubting their ability to push for progressive policies from within the government.
Greens leader Shane Rattenbury said his party had heard the electorate loud and clear and needed to make some bold decisions.
"There is a crisis of inequality. We know that, we understand that," he said.
"That is why we are pushing to go further, faster, to make Canberra a fairer place."
The three party leaders - Mr Barr, Mr Rattenbury and Ms Lee - were all comfortably re-elected in Kurrajong, but not Greens deputy leader and environment minister Rebecca Vassarotti.
She joined Murrumbidgee politician Emma Davidson and Brindabella representative Laura Nuttall on the losers' table, while Labor's Mick Gentleman is on track to surrender his seat to party colleague Taimus Werner-Gibbings.
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